ITPEC FE Morning April 2019 Question 52
By using the triangular distribution formula of the three-point estimation technique, which of the following is the expected duration (in days) required for an activity? The estimations are as shown below.
Conditions – Estimations for the activity duration
Case 1: Two (2) days. If an experienced employee is assigned for this activity.
Case 2: Four (4) days. If a general employee is assigned for this activity.
Case3: Twelve (12) days. If an unexperienced employee is assigned for this activity.
Explanation
6 days — the triangular distribution weights the three estimates equally.
- •Optimistic O = 2, most likely M = 4, pessimistic P = 12
- •Expected duration: E = (O + M + P) ÷ 3 = (2 + 4 + 12) ÷ 3 = 18 ÷ 3 = 6
Answer (c)
Why not others:
- •(a) 4 — the most likely estimate alone, ignoring the other two
- •(b) 5 — the beta (PERT) formula (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6 = (2 + 16 + 12) ÷ 6 = 5, not the triangular one the question asks for
- •(d) 7 — (2 + 12) ÷ 2, the midpoint of the optimistic and pessimistic estimates, leaving out the most likely one
Key rule: The triangular estimate divides the plain sum by 3, while the beta (PERT) estimate weights the most likely value by 4 and divides by 6; check which distribution the question names.
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