ITPEC FE Morning April 2019 Question 52
ITPEC FE Morning April 2019 — Question 52 of 80
Three-Point Estimation (Triangular Distribution) — calculating expected duration from three scenario estimates
The triangular distribution formula:
E = (O + M + P) / 3
- •O (Optimistic) = 2 days (experienced employee)
- •M (Most Likely) = 4 days (general employee)
- •P (Pessimistic) = 12 days (unexperienced employee)
E = (2 + 4 + 12) / 3 = 18 / 3 = 6
Answer: c) 6
Why not others:
- a) 4 — just the most likely value, not the average of all three
- b) 5 — this would come from the PERT/Beta formula (O + 4M + P) / 6, but the question specifies triangular distribution
- d) 7 — does not match any standard formula with these inputs
Key rule: Two three-point estimation formulas exist: Triangular = (O + M + P) / 3 (simple average), PERT/Beta = (O + 4M + P) / 6 (weighted toward most likely). Read the question carefully to know which one to apply.
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