ITPEC FE Subject A October 2025 Question 42
ITPEC FE Subject A October 2025 — Question 42 of 60
PERT formula (Beta Distribution): E = (O + 4M + P) / 6
Given values:
- Optimistic (O) = $50,000 (smooth implementation)
- Most Likely (M) = $70,000 (normal conditions)
- Pessimistic (P) = $120,000 (worst-case scenario)
Calculation:
- E = (50,000 + 4 × 70,000 + 120,000) / 6
- E = (50,000 + 280,000 + 120,000) / 6
- E = 450,000 / 6 = 75,000
Why not others:
- (a) 70,000 — this is just the Most Likely value without applying the formula
- (c) 80,000 — simple average of three values: (50,000 + 70,000 + 120,000) / 3 = 80,000; a trap for those who forget the ×4 weight
- (d) 85,000 — does not match any standard estimation method
Key rule: PERT weights Most Likely ×4, so the result always gravitates toward M. If you see three estimates (optimistic, normal, pessimistic), apply (O + 4M + P) / 6.
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