ITPEC FE Morning April 2021 Question 53
When the duration for painting a house is estimated, which of the following is an appropriate technique that estimates the duration on the basis of the actual duration of a similar painting job in the past of the same house or other historical data from similar work?
Explanation
Analogous estimate — it bases the new estimate on the actual duration of a similar past job.
Analogous (top-down) estimating takes the recorded duration or cost of a comparable earlier activity, here the last painting of the same or a similar house, and adjusts it for known differences. It is quick and useful early on, when details are few, but only as accurate as the similarity between the jobs.
Answer (a)
Why not others:
- •(b) Parametric estimate — multiplies a quantity by a unit rate derived from data, such as square metres to paint × hours per square metre, rather than reusing a whole past job's duration
- •(c) Reserve analysis — decides how much contingency time or money to add for risk; it adjusts an estimate but does not produce the base estimate
- •(d) Three-point estimate — combines optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations, for example (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6, to allow for uncertainty
Key rule: Analogous estimating copies a similar whole job, parametric estimating scales a unit rate by a quantity, and three-point estimating weighs a range of outcomes.
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