IPA IP 2024 Question 9
A question IPA Japan published in 令和6年度 ITパスポート試験 公開問題 問9, translated into English. ITPEC is based on the same exams.
Which of the following is the most appropriate description concerning Fermi estimation, which is used in corporate strategy planning, marketing, and other areas?
Explanation
Estimating a quantity that is very hard to calculate exactly, from known information and logical reasoning — that is Fermi estimation.
Named after the physicist Enrico Fermi, the technique breaks an unknown quantity into factors that can each be estimated, then combines them. The yearly market for a product, for example, is the number of households × the share that use it × the purchases per year × the price. The result is only a rough figure, but every assumption is visible, so it is used to size markets in strategy planning and marketing.
Answer (a)
Why not others:
- •(b) — taking part in a group's activities and observing people's behaviour to infer customs, tastes and culture is ethnography
- •(c) — statistically estimating the relationship between input and output data is statistical analysis such as regression analysis, not a rough estimate built by reasoning
- •(d) — repeating the same questionnaire to a group of experts, with feedback of the results each round until their forecasts converge, is the Delphi method
Key rule: Fermi estimation splits an unknown quantity into factors you can estimate and multiplies them; the Delphi method reaches an expert consensus through repeated surveys.
Corporate Activities · AI-written, may contain errors
This question comes from the past questions IPA Japan publishes, translated into English by ITPEC Practice. ITPEC Practice is an independent study tool and is not affiliated with IPA or ITPEC. See the original paper (PDF) or Report an issue.